today <- Sys.Date() # today's date

Mise à jour du 2021-04-07.
Source des données : https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-de-laboratoires-pour-le-depistage-indicateurs-sur-les-variants/


QUESTIONS:
- Ajouter données Flash ? Pour avoir des points plus anciens


Légende

library("RColorBrewer")
brw <- brewer.pal(12, "Set3")
brw[2] <- brw[12] # Darker yellow
brw[10] <- brw[11] # Lighter shade
colsAge <- c("#000000FF", brw[1:10])
names(colsAge) <- c("0", "9", "19", "29", "39", "49", "59", "69", "79", "89", "90")
pchAge <- c(16, 0:9)
names(pchAge) <- names(colsAge)
cexAge <- c(1.2, rep(1, 10))
names(cexAge) <- names(colsAge)

ages <- c("tous", "0-9", "10-19", "20-29", "30-39", "40-49", "50-59", "60-69", "70-79", "80-89", "90+")
par(mfrow = c(1, 1))
plot(0:1, 0:1, type = "n", axes = FALSE, xlab = "", ylab = "")
legend(x = 0.5, y = 1, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)

Données France

Load data

# Données France
URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/c43d7f3f-c9f5-436b-9b26-728f80e0fd52"
dataFile <- paste0("data/France_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.France <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Format date
dat.France$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.France$semaine, 1, 10))
dat.France$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.France$semaine, 12, 21))

# Rewrite time as days since beginning of the data
dat.France$time <- dat.France$date2 - min(dat.France$date2)

# Compute data on total tests
dat.France$Nb_tests_POS <- dat.France$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible / (dat.France$Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible / 100)

# Dictionnary to reformat age class
dic.age <- (0:9)*10 + 4.5 # Median of age classes
names(dic.age) <- as.character(c(0 + (0:8)*10 + 9, 90))

Compare the data to another source – number of positive tests

# Compare to another source
URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/dd0de5d9-b5a5-4503-930a-7b08dc0adc7c"
dataFile <- paste0("data/tests-France_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.tests <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/c1167c4e-8c89-40f2-adb3-1954f8fedfa7"
dataFile <- paste0("data/tests7j-France_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.tests7j <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
dat.tests7j$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.tests7j$semaine_glissante, 1, 10))
dat.tests7j$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.tests7j$semaine_glissante, 12, 21))

# P nombre de tests positifs
# T nombre de tests total

dat.tests$date <- as.Date(dat.tests$jour)
dateRange <- range(c(range(dat.France$date1), range(dat.France$date2)))

subdat.tests <- dat.tests[dat.tests$date >= dateRange[1] & dat.tests$date <= dateRange[2],]

# Function to compute a sliding window 
sliding.window <- function(v, winwdt = 7, pos = 4, na.rm = TRUE){
  # v vector to be averaged/summed
  # winwdt width of the window 
  # pos position of the focal day in the window
  # FUN function to apply
  n <- length(v)
  # Initialize output vector
  out <- 0 * v + (-1)
  out[1:(pos-1)] <- NA
  out[(n + 1 - winwdt + pos) : n] <- NA
  
  for(i in pos : (n - winwdt + pos)){
    out[i] <- mean(v[(i - pos + 1):(i + winwdt - pos)], na.rm = na.rm)
  }
  return(out[1:n])
}

subdat.tests.0 <- subdat.tests[subdat.tests$cl_age90 == 0, ]
dat.France.0 <- dat.France[dat.France$cl_age90 == 0, ]

subdat.tests.0$P.7.1 <- 7 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 1)
subdat.tests.0$P.7.4 <- 7 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 4)
subdat.tests.0$P.7.7 <- 7 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 7)
subdat.tests.0$P.8.8 <- 8 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 8, winwdt = 8)

plot(dat.France.0$date2, dat.France.0$Nb_tests_POS, ylim = c(1*10^5, 2*10^5), pch = 16, 
     xlab = "date", ylab = "nombre de tests")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.1, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "red")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.4, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "green")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.7, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "blue")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.8.8, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "purple")
points(dat.tests7j$date2, dat.tests7j$P, pch = 2)
legend(x = as.Date("2021-02-18"), y = 200000, col = c("black", "red", "green", "blue", "purple", "black"), legend = c("sidep tests", "w7, c1", "w7, c4", "w7, c7", "w8, c8", "sidep 7j-fin"), pch = c(16, rep(1, 4), 2))

Legend notation:
w: width of the window, c: position of the index day.
So the sliding window is on the 7 last days.
The difference (about 15% more positives in the variants dataset) may be due to the variant data being in terms of tests, and the other in terms of people, with duplicates removed.

#plot(dat.France.0$date2, dat.France.0$Nb_tests, ylim = c(1*10^5, 2*10^5), pch = 16, 
#     xlab = "date", ylab = "comparaison nombre de tests")
#points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.7, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "blue")
#points(subdat.tests.0$date, 1.17*subdat.tests.0$P.7.7, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "orange")

Format the data further (age class data)

# Data per age class
dat.France.ages <- dat.France[dat.France$cl_age90 != 0,]

# Add new age class code -- median of the age class
dat.France.ages$ageClass <- dic.age[as.character(dat.France.ages$cl_age90)]

# Standardize age class values
dat.France.ages$stdage <- (dat.France.ages$ageClass - mean(dat.France.ages$ageClass))/dat.France.ages$ageClass

Effort

par(las = 1)
with(dat.France[dat.France$cl_age90 == "0",], {
plot(date2, Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible, ylim = c(0, 100), type = "l", xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion tests criblés")})

V1

Compute r

names(dat.France)
##  [1] "fra"                     "semaine"                
##  [3] "cl_age90"                "Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible" 
##  [5] "Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible" "Nb_susp_501Y_V1"        
##  [7] "Prc_susp_501Y_V1"        "Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3"      
##  [9] "Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3"      "Nb_susp_IND"            
## [11] "Prc_susp_IND"            "Nb_susp_ABS"            
## [13] "Prc_susp_ABS"            "date1"                  
## [15] "date2"                   "time"                   
## [17] "Nb_tests_POS"
dat.France$rABS <- NA
dat.France$rV1 <- NA
dat.France$rV23 <- NA

for(iage in unique(dat.France$cl_age90)){
  ilines <- which(dat.France$cl_age90 == iage)
  sub <- dat.France[ilines, ]
  dat.France[ilines, "rABS"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_susp_ABS), NA)
  dat.France[ilines, "rV1"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_susp_501Y_V1), NA)
  dat.France[ilines, "rV23"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3), NA)
}

Plot

# All ages, time
par(las = 1)
plot(dat.France$date2, dat.France$Prc_susp_501Y_V1, ylim = c(0, 100), 
     col = colsAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     pch = pchAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     cex = cexAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V1", axes = FALSE)
axis(1, pos = 0, at = as.Date(unique(dat.France$date2)), labels = format(unique(dat.France$date2), format = "%b %d"))
axis(2)

# Plot dp/(p(1-p)) for each age class
ageClasses <- sort(unique(dat.France$cl_age90))
nAge <- length(ageClasses)
dat.France$s <- NA
dat.France$diffTot <- NA
for(iage in unique(dat.France$cl_age90)){
  ilines <- which(dat.France$cl_age90 == iage)
  sub <- dat.France[ilines, ]
  V1 <- sub$Prc_susp_501Y_V1/100
  t <- sub$date2
  s <- diff(V1) / (V1[-length(V1)]*(1-V1[-length(V1)]))
  V2 <- log(V1/(1-V1)) # Logit
  s2 <- diff(V2)
  plot(t[-length(V1)], s, ylim = c(-0.1, 0.1),  main = iage)
  lines(t[-length(V2)], s2, col = 2)
  print(c(iage, mean(s)))
  dat.France[ilines, "s"] <- c(s2, NA)
  dat.France[ilines, "diffTot"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_tests_POS), NA)
}

Test

Binomial model

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V1 result
dat.France.ages$V1 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V1)
dat.France.ages$notV1 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.France.ages$notV1.narm <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

# Check that columns correctly sum
all(dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_IND - dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible == 0)
## [1] TRUE

GLM, assume that all indeterminate PCRs are non-V1

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl0 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -10.4653   -2.6809   -0.0694    3.0119    8.4004  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                0.2200000  0.0088597   24.83   <2e-16 ***
## time                       0.0263647  0.0003135   84.11   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5      -0.1588149  0.0102595  -15.48   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5      -0.1993194  0.0101242  -19.69   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5      -0.1676254  0.0101202  -16.56   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5      -0.1758088  0.0101086  -17.39   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5      -0.2839147  0.0102003  -27.83   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5      -0.4162414  0.0106803  -38.97   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.5983050  0.0116263  -51.46   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.9322256  0.0126472  -73.71   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -1.0953217  0.0158318  -69.19   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0106090  0.0003685   28.79   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5  0.0106959  0.0003672   29.13   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0104690  0.0003662   28.59   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0122479  0.0003664   33.43   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0136830  0.0003713   36.85   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0154175  0.0003921   39.32   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0178462  0.0004346   41.07   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0226216  0.0004832   46.82   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0225081  0.0006259   35.96   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 333497.1  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   6820.7  on 440  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 11201
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -16.4777   -2.8340    0.9304    4.1144    8.5331  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -8.667e-02  4.435e-03 -19.542   <2e-16 ***
## time                  3.869e-02  7.341e-05 527.052   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5  1.078e-01  4.769e-03  22.612   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5  7.120e-02  4.735e-03  15.035   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5  9.762e-02  4.739e-03  20.598   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5  1.291e-01  4.743e-03  27.228   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5  5.251e-02  4.798e-03  10.944   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5 -4.171e-02  5.043e-03  -8.271   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -1.722e-01  5.566e-03 -30.940   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -4.089e-01  6.174e-03 -66.231   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -5.810e-01  8.107e-03 -71.665   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 333497  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  10323  on 449  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 14685
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       449    10323.0                          
## 2       440     6820.7  9   3502.2 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -17.321   -5.720   -1.669    3.580   13.492  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)    3.155e-01  4.071e-03   77.51   <2e-16 ***
## time           3.028e-02  1.551e-04  195.22   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -9.021e-03  8.483e-05 -106.33   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  2.035e-04  3.318e-06   61.33   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 333497  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  18520  on 456  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 22868
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       456    18520.2                          
## 2       440     6820.7 16    11699 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

GLM, ignore indeterminate PCRs

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl0.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -11.9049   -2.6373    0.4646    2.5244    7.9544  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                0.3643279  0.0100266   36.34   <2e-16 ***
## time                       0.0432724  0.0003846  112.50   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5      -0.1918223  0.0115121  -16.66   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5      -0.1995526  0.0113764  -17.54   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5      -0.1763056  0.0113653  -15.51   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5      -0.1923099  0.0113426  -16.95   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5      -0.3025404  0.0114264  -26.48   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5      -0.4422492  0.0119113  -37.13   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.6129192  0.0129041  -47.50   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.9582383  0.0139268  -68.81   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -1.1423585  0.0171984  -66.42   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0060827  0.0004464   13.62   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5  0.0050004  0.0004450   11.24   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0047699  0.0004436   10.75   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0062995  0.0004434   14.21   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0070432  0.0004479   15.73   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0082335  0.0004693   17.55   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0107958  0.0005166   20.90   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0163828  0.0005701   28.74   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0181733  0.0007332   24.79   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 412398.9  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   6019.8  on 440  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 10269
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -13.6290   -2.4782    0.6924    3.1414    7.7987  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)           2.123e-01  5.338e-03  39.771   <2e-16 ***
## time                  5.006e-02  8.544e-05 585.935   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5 -5.496e-02  5.783e-03  -9.504   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5 -8.407e-02  5.739e-03 -14.647   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5 -6.571e-02  5.742e-03 -11.445   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5 -5.032e-02  5.739e-03  -8.768   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5 -1.455e-01  5.785e-03 -25.143   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5 -2.609e-01  6.031e-03 -43.254   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -3.806e-01  6.587e-03 -57.770   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -6.195e-01  7.203e-03 -86.009   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -7.783e-01  9.241e-03 -84.213   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 412398.9  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   7533.9  on 449  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 11765
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       449     7533.9                          
## 2       440     6019.8  9     1514 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -14.3373   -4.4092   -0.9571    2.8900   11.9127  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)    4.483e-01  4.477e-03  100.12   <2e-16 ***
## time           4.393e-02  1.829e-04  240.20   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -9.150e-03  9.258e-05  -98.84   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  1.474e-04  3.871e-06   38.07   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 412399  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  13064  on 456  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 17280
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       456    13063.6                          
## 2       440     6019.8 16   7043.7 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
plot(dat.France$diffTot, dat.France$s, 
     xlab = "Increase in total number of positive tests over 1 day", 
     ylab = "s")

all(is.na(dat.France$diffTot) == is.na(dat.France$s))
lineRemove <- is.na(dat.France$diffTot)
mdl <- lm(dat.France$s[!lineRemove] ~ dat.France$diffTot[!lineRemove])
summary(mdl)

cor.test(dat.France$diffTot[!lineRemove], dat.France$s[!lineRemove])

No effet of epidemic growth on selective advantage of the variant

V2/V3

Plot

# All ages, time
par(las = 1)
plot(dat.France$date2, dat.France$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3, ylim = c(0, 100), 
     col = colsAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     pch = pchAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     cex = cexAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V2/V3", axes = FALSE)
axis(1, pos = 0, at = as.Date(unique(dat.France$date2)), labels = format(unique(dat.France$date2), format = "%b %d"))
axis(2)

Test

Binomial

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V2/V3 result
dat.France.ages$V23 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V23)
dat.France.ages$notV23 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.France.ages$notV23.narm <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

GLM, assume that all indeterminate PCRs are non-V1

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V23
mdl0 <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.9729  -1.0374  -0.0582   1.1069   4.3472  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)               -2.9621865  0.0202511 -146.273  < 2e-16 ***
## time                      -0.0064084  0.0007007   -9.146  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5       0.1868161  0.0230808    8.094 5.77e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5       0.1466524  0.0227707    6.440 1.19e-10 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5       0.0846586  0.0228784    3.700 0.000215 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5       0.0342692  0.0229426    1.494 0.135257    
## factor(ageClass)54.5       0.0758943  0.0230673    3.290 0.001001 ** 
## factor(ageClass)64.5       0.1503748  0.0238903    6.294 3.09e-10 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.2223583  0.0273057   -8.143 3.85e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.3662788  0.0305376  -11.994  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -0.3368902  0.0382464   -8.808  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5 -0.0045890  0.0008076   -5.683 1.33e-08 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5  0.0010447  0.0007989    1.308 0.190962    
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0014471  0.0008009    1.807 0.070779 .  
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0018237  0.0008028    2.272 0.023110 *  
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0022656  0.0008096    2.798 0.005135 ** 
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0023617  0.0008432    2.801 0.005095 ** 
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0094767  0.0009677    9.793  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0129193  0.0010994   11.751  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0130248  0.0014253    9.138  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 4084.6  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1290.7  on 440  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4956.9
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1 <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time + factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -6.2858  -1.2793   0.0697   1.4959   6.5540  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -3.0062181  0.0097876 -307.146  < 2e-16 ***
## time                 -0.0047189  0.0001525  -30.940  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0754919  0.0103718    7.279 3.37e-13 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5  0.1752811  0.0102298   17.134  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5  0.1228399  0.0102782   11.952  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0815447  0.0103162    7.905 2.69e-15 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5  0.1336415  0.0104107   12.837  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5  0.2102723  0.0108420   19.394  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0046753  0.0125115    0.374  0.70864    
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -0.0696469  0.0144553   -4.818 1.45e-06 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -0.0521814  0.0193090   -2.702  0.00688 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 4084.6  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1943.3  on 449  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 5591.6
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       449     1943.3                          
## 2       440     1290.7  9   652.65 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2 <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.5025  -1.9828  -0.5202   1.2846   5.8833  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)   -2.725e+00  8.804e-03 -309.56   <2e-16 ***
## time          -1.142e-02  3.200e-04  -35.70   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -4.223e-03  1.885e-04  -22.40   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  1.641e-04  6.910e-06   23.75   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 4084.6  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2558.0  on 456  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 6192.2
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       456     2558.0                          
## 2       440     1290.7 16   1267.3 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

GLM, ignore indeterminate PCRs

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V23
mdl0.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.9583  -1.0701  -0.0622   1.1650   4.3146  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)               -2.856e+00  2.030e-02 -140.700  < 2e-16 ***
## time                      -5.488e-03  7.022e-04   -7.815 5.51e-15 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5       1.705e-01  2.313e-02    7.369 1.72e-13 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5       1.422e-01  2.282e-02    6.230 4.67e-10 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5       7.443e-02  2.293e-02    3.247  0.00117 ** 
## factor(ageClass)44.5       1.962e-02  2.299e-02    0.854  0.39328    
## factor(ageClass)54.5       6.438e-02  2.311e-02    2.785  0.00535 ** 
## factor(ageClass)64.5       1.416e-01  2.394e-02    5.915 3.32e-09 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -2.165e-01  2.736e-02   -7.916 2.46e-15 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -3.483e-01  3.059e-02  -11.388  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -3.217e-01  3.828e-02   -8.404  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5 -5.418e-03  8.091e-04   -6.696 2.14e-11 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5 -2.441e-05  8.004e-04   -0.030  0.97567    
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  4.367e-04  8.025e-04    0.544  0.58631    
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  7.576e-04  8.042e-04    0.942  0.34620    
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  1.132e-03  8.111e-04    1.395  0.16294    
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  1.190e-03  8.448e-04    1.409  0.15895    
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  8.154e-03  9.693e-04    8.412  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  1.173e-02  1.101e-03   10.656  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  1.264e-02  1.426e-03    8.861  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3922.4  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1324.4  on 440  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4988.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -6.1990  -1.3127   0.1348   1.5287   6.3047  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -2.8738506  0.0098033 -293.151  < 2e-16 ***
## time                 -0.0048005  0.0001526  -31.453  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0372982  0.0103999    3.586 0.000335 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5  0.1430075  0.0102581   13.941  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0862431  0.0103061    8.368  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0391836  0.0103436    3.788 0.000152 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0928226  0.0104384    8.892  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5  0.1713500  0.0108712   15.762  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -0.0229947  0.0125431   -1.833 0.066765 .  
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -0.0818445  0.0144925   -5.647 1.63e-08 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -0.0508680  0.0193648   -2.627 0.008619 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3922.4  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1949.2  on 449  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 5595.2
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       449     1949.2                          
## 2       440     1324.4  9   624.88 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Conclusion : the change in frequency of the variant varies across age classes, different slopes for different ages. Faster for youngest (0-10) and for oldest (70+). Initially lower frequency for old people, but steeper slope: Older ones catch back younger ones.

  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.6590  -1.8039  -0.4339   1.3108   5.5795  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)   -2.636e+00  8.843e-03 -298.03   <2e-16 ***
## time          -1.112e-02  3.215e-04  -34.60   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -4.012e-03  1.895e-04  -21.17   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  1.548e-04  6.950e-06   22.27   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 3922.4  on 459  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 2431.6  on 456  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 6063.6
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       456     2431.6                          
## 2       440     1324.4 16   1107.2 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Multinomial

Prepare plots for distribution of variants

par(mfrow = c(1, 1))

getVec <- function(dataset, prop = TRUE){
  if(prop){
    nn <- 1
  }else{
    nn <- dataset$Nb_tests_POS / 7 # Divide by 7 to have average over the week instead of sum
  }
  x <- dataset$date2
  cA <- dataset$Prc_susp_ABS/100 * nn
  cB <- cA + dataset$Prc_susp_IND/100 * nn
  cC <- cB + dataset$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3/100 * nn
  cD <- cC + dataset$Prc_susp_501Y_V1/100 * nn
  list(x = x, cA = cA, cB = cB, cC = cC, cD = cD)
}

colV <- c(brewer.pal(3, "Set2"), gray(0.5))
colV <- colV[c(3, 4, 2, 1)]

plotDist <- function(x, cA, cB, cC, cD){
#  if(max(cD, na.rm = TRUE) <= 1.1 | max(cD, na.rm = TRUE) >= 99 | max(cA, na.rm = TRUE) >= 99){
#    yl <- "Proportions variants"
#  }else{
    yl <- "Number cases"
#  }
  plot(x, cA, ylim = c(0, max(cD, na.rm = TRUE)), type = "l", 
       xlab = "date", ylab = yl, axes = FALSE)
  axis(1, pos = 0, labels = format(x, "%b-%d"), at = x)
  axis(2, pos = x[1])
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(rep(0, length(x)), rev(cA)), col = colV[1], border = NULL)
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(cA, rev(cB)), col = colV[2], border = NULL)
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(cB, rev(cC)), col = colV[3], border = NULL)
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(cC, rev(cD)), col = colV[4], border = NULL)
  
  nend <- length(x)-1
  text(x = rep(x[nend], 4), y = c(cA[nend]/2, cA[nend] + (cB[nend] - cA[nend])/2, cB[nend] + (cC[nend] - cB[nend])/2, cC[nend] + (cD[nend] - cC[nend])/2), labels = c("WT", "indet.", "V2/V3", "V1"), col = "white", adj = 1)
}

Frequencies

cc <- getVec(dat.France.0, prop = TRUE)
plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)

Densities

cc <- getVec(dat.France.0, prop = FALSE)
plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)

mat <- as.matrix(data.frame(WT = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS, 
                            V1 = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1, 
                            V2 = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3, 
                            INDET = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_IND))

library(nnet)

## Null model
m0 <- multinom(mat ~ 1)
## # weights:  8 (3 variable)
## initial  value 7839852.276078 
## iter  10 value 5107367.856288
## iter  10 value 5107367.854782
## final  value 5107367.743089 
## converged
summary(m0)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ 1)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)
## V1      1.4459311
## V2     -1.2613147
## INDET  -0.6330177
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)
## V1    0.001150638
## V2    0.002203254
## INDET 0.001757747
## 
## Residual Deviance: 10214735 
## AIC: 10214741
## Compute by hand to check result
log(colSums(mat)[2]/colSums(mat)[1])
##       V1 
## 1.445908
log(colSums(mat)[3]/colSums(mat)[1])
##        V2 
## -1.261269
log(colSums(mat)[4]/colSums(mat)[1])
##      INDET 
## -0.6329842
## Time effect
m1 <- multinom(mat ~ time, data=dat.France.ages)
## # weights:  12 (6 variable)
## initial  value 7839852.276078 
## iter  10 value 4882637.293707
## final  value 4882620.152012 
## converged
summary(m1)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ time, data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)       time
## V1      0.1152681 0.06126942
## V2     -2.1648440 0.04445189
## INDET  -1.6304612 0.04831028
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)         time
## V1    0.002180791 9.657466e-05
## V2    0.004484716 1.737668e-04
## INDET 0.003563810 1.405462e-04
## 
## Residual Deviance: 9765240 
## AIC: 9765252
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(m0, m1, test="Chisq")
##   Model Resid. df Resid. Dev   Test    Df LR stat. Pr(Chi)
## 1     1      1377   10214735           NA       NA      NA
## 2  time      1374    9765240 1 vs 2     3 449495.2       0
## Age effect
m2 <- multinom(mat ~ time + stdage, data=dat.France.ages)
## # weights:  16 (9 variable)
## initial  value 7839852.276078 
## iter  10 value 4999124.616983
## final  value 4879538.495619 
## converged
summary(m2)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ time + stdage, data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)       time      stdage
## V1     0.08905639 0.06100331 -0.03275352
## V2    -2.18073649 0.04429275 -0.02043088
## INDET -1.68041687 0.04780500 -0.05830311
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)         time       stdage
## V1    0.002227745 0.0000966784 0.0005745269
## V2    0.004557426 0.0001739540 0.0010130524
## INDET 0.003631193 0.0001407568 0.0007636485
## 
## Residual Deviance: 9759077 
## AIC: 9759095
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(m1, m2, test="Chisq")
##           Model Resid. df Resid. Dev   Test    Df LR stat. Pr(Chi)
## 1          time      1374    9765240           NA       NA      NA
## 2 time + stdage      1371    9759077 1 vs 2     3 6163.313       0
## Age effect
m3 <- multinom(mat ~ time * stdage, data=dat.France.ages)
## # weights:  20 (12 variable)
## initial  value 7839852.276078 
## iter  10 value 6510348.858407
## iter  20 value 4925099.605481
## iter  30 value 4878573.654460
## final  value 4878573.035531 
## converged
summary(m3)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ time * stdage, data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)       time      stdage   time:stdage
## V1     0.06304006 0.06229137 -0.06035668  0.0013033669
## V2    -2.20844874 0.04569125 -0.05019665  0.0014219774
## INDET -1.65538851 0.04708244 -0.03872029 -0.0004397706
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)         time      stdage  time:stdage
## V1    0.002367954 0.0001057855 0.001077794 4.433307e-05
## V2    0.004882464 0.0001903724 0.002105027 7.862369e-05
## INDET 0.003881754 0.0001547072 0.001649076 6.068228e-05
## 
## Residual Deviance: 9757146 
## AIC: 9757170
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(m2, m3, test="Chisq")
##           Model Resid. df Resid. Dev   Test    Df LR stat. Pr(Chi)
## 1 time + stdage      1371    9759077           NA       NA      NA
## 2 time * stdage      1368    9757146 1 vs 2     3  1930.92       0

Pb in the data is the change in the age structure of positive individuals; to really test the effet, we would need information on the negative tests as well, and the age distribution in these negative tests.

tapply(dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible, list(dat.France.ages$cl_age90, dat.France.ages$time), sum)
##        0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11
## 9   3579  3831  3927  3956  4024  4112  4256  4355  4501  4525  4512  4547
## 19 10525 11475 11878 11942 12487 12881 13204 13521 13716 13746 13790 13936
## 29 11729 12971 13398 13520 14381 14949 15308 15560 15599 15744 15777 15846
## 39 12342 13372 13843 13893 14557 15084 15332 15585 15658 15631 15693 15783
## 49 12448 13591 14059 14177 14890 15416 15781 15851 15934 16054 16061 16044
## 59 11204 12342 12831 12926 13746 14276 14621 14935 15018 15031 15035 14919
## 69  8049  8828  9089  9158  9641  9995 10319 10564 10609 10741 10743 10828
## 79  5182  5629  5852  5925  6120  6434  6610  6684  6741  6762  6738  6757
## 89  4337  4655  4756  4822  4842  4825  4811  4702  4645  4623  4607  4441
## 90  2419  2508  2558  2588  2542  2502  2392  2310  2233  2218  2206  2022
##       12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23
## 9   4598  4585  4670  4753  4784  4814  5022  5257  5557  5879  6267  6526
## 19 13966 14055 14084 14238 14375 14388 14723 15238 15690 16311 17036 17411
## 29 15989 16044 16190 16296 16356 16327 16688 16897 17368 18036 18743 19037
## 39 15671 15714 15598 15634 15793 15767 15969 16137 16507 17147 17778 18155
## 49 15874 15739 15750 15573 15568 15566 15887 16195 16711 17237 17941 18282
## 59 14783 14615 14409 14334 14363 14358 14512 14665 15015 15521 15889 16210
## 69 10812 10683 10595 10564 10527 10490 10423 10629 10784 11013 11280 11436
## 79  6635  6535  6444  6427  6459  6449  6475  6446  6502  6651  6715  6791
## 89  4348  4180  4095  4018  4003  3992  3934  3957  4065  4114  4188  4233
## 90  1906  1808  1712  1684  1675  1658  1618  1545  1562  1565  1580  1590
##       24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35
## 9   6571  7078  7489  7763  8159  8565  8699  8720  9097  9548  9911 10050
## 19 17510 18371 19126 19855 20405 21012 21328 21347 22189 23237 24081 24548
## 29 19176 19917 20640 21250 21438 21662 21667 21635 21776 22169 22355 22394
## 39 18347 19321 20055 20728 21173 21700 21871 21884 22310 23073 23669 23792
## 49 18445 19216 19902 20542 20842 21242 21518 21513 22166 23012 23513 23762
## 59 16330 17047 17594 18087 18414 18767 18793 18793 19173 19770 20282 20352
## 69 11498 12023 12295 12654 13106 13337 13505 13523 13770 14128 14363 14243
## 79  6866  7075  7153  7255  7326  7434  7457  7468  7515  7768  8001  7960
## 89  4224  4390  4364  4394  4426  4441  4435  4450  4434  4458  4544  4520
## 90  1591  1675  1695  1720  1756  1780  1778  1778  1783  1825  1850  1839
##       36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44    45
## 9  10349 10498 10509 10646 10629 10424  9987  8816  8148  8038
## 19 25618 25911 25954 26730 26729 26424 25759 23152 21791 21534
## 29 22695 23009 23027 23346 23103 22591 22087 20466 19433 19228
## 39 24271 24492 24486 24846 24516 23702 23102 21146 19943 19648
## 49 24416 24643 24693 25099 24787 24374 23803 21943 20712 20380
## 59 20782 21074 21039 21454 21239 20798 20433 18861 17790 17591
## 69 14512 14624 14632 14822 14558 14131 13718 12568 11780 11587
## 79  8074  8137  8124  8226  8139  7904  7840  7270  6848  6690
## 89  4557  4601  4626  4738  4763  4599  4538  4247  3978  3855
## 90  1863  1900  1894  1928  1883  1822  1821  1675  1568  1522

Données régions

Load data

URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/73e8851a-d851-43f8-89e4-6178b35b7127"
dataFile <- paste0("data/Regions_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.regions <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Format date
dat.regions$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.regions$semaine, 1, 10))
dat.regions$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.regions$semaine, 12, 21))

# Rewrite time as days since beginning of the data
dat.regions$time <- dat.regions$date2 - min(dat.regions$date2)

# Compute data on total tests
dat.regions$Nb_tests_POS <- dat.regions$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible / (dat.regions$Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible / 100)
# Codes regions
URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/r/34fc7b52-ef11-4ab0-bc16-e1aae5c942e7"
dataFile <- "data/coderegions.csv"
download.file(URL, dataFile)
codesRegions <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ",", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Turn into dictionary
regs <- codesRegions$nom_region
names(regs) <- as.character(codesRegions$code_region)
# Add region name
dat.regions$reg_name <- regs[as.character(dat.regions$reg)]
# dat.regions[floor(runif(10)*1000), c("reg", "reg_name")] # check a few names

# What are the other regions??
# aggregate(dat.regions$reg, by = list(dat.regions$reg), FUN = length)

Format data further

dat.regions.ages <- dat.regions[dat.regions$cl_age90 != 0,]

# Add new age class code -- median of the age class
dat.regions.ages$ageClass <- dic.age[as.character(dat.regions.ages$cl_age90)]

# Standardize age class values
dat.regions.ages$stdage <- (dat.regions.ages$ageClass - mean(dat.regions.ages$ageClass))/dat.regions.ages$ageClass

V1

Plot

tmp <- unique(dat.regions$reg) # Region codes
tmp <- tmp[tmp>10 & tmp <= 93] # Choose only metropolitan regions
par(mfrow = c(4, 3))
for(region in tmp){
  subdat <- dat.regions[dat.regions$reg == region, ]
  plot(subdat$date2, subdat$Prc_susp_501Y_V1, ylim = c(0, 100), main = regs[as.character(region)], col = colsAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V1"
       )
}

Test

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V1 result
dat.regions.ages$V1 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V1)
dat.regions.ages$notV1 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.regions.ages$notV1.narm <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

# Check that columns currently sum
all(dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_ABS + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_IND - dat.regions.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible == 0)
## [1] TRUE
dat.regions.ages$reg_name.fac <- as.factor(dat.regions.ages$reg_name)

GLM, assume that all indeterminate PCRs are non-V1

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl0 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
summary(mdl0)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -307.19  -111.09   -33.93     0.00   625.57  
## 
## Coefficients: (4 not defined because of singularities)
##                                                                        Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                           8.455e+14
## time                                                                  5.939e+13
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                  1.808e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                  6.062e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                 -8.455e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                 -8.455e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                  3.114e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                  3.022e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                  9.573e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                 -5.496e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                  2.586e+14
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                               1.186e+15
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                              3.901e+14
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                  -1.066e+14
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                 2.014e+15
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                            -2.401e+15
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                            1.761e+15
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                               -4.707e+15
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                       1.585e+15
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                         2.882e+15
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                            3.777e+12
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                           -1.034e+14
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                              -1.104e+15
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                            -6.324e+14
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                   -3.945e+14
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                            -1.299e+14
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                     -9.851e+14
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                            3.338e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                            -4.591e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                             4.779e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                            -5.939e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                            -5.939e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                            -1.584e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                            -1.514e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                            -2.010e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                             1.399e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                            -2.045e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                         -3.798e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                        -1.344e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                             -2.179e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                           -8.182e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                        1.989e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                      -8.813e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                           7.334e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                 -5.505e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                   -8.938e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                      -9.083e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                      -2.082e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                         -3.894e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                       -8.137e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                               6.577e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                       -1.136e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                 2.488e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                      -3.475e+12
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -3.840e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -2.638e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -4.174e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -2.315e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -8.305e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -8.333e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.776e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          4.277e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.024e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.409e+14
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.840e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -3.901e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -3.901e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -4.349e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -4.257e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.063e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         6.502e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -1.792e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              8.149e+14
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              1.677e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -2.228e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -7.648e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -3.853e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -3.761e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              7.031e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              6.210e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -3.604e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -1.503e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            8.611e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            3.218e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.978e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -2.156e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -1.967e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -2.556e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            2.852e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.647e+13
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.807e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        3.350e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -5.945e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.671e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.558e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.466e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.702e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        8.221e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.487e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -1.286e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       4.998e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.967e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       3.112e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -3.359e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -3.373e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -4.912e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       6.907e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.638e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -2.869e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.453e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.329e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           4.908e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -4.961e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -4.523e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           4.493e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           4.854e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                  NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -4.238e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -3.037e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -3.412e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -1.905e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -7.456e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -5.385e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -2.770e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  5.115e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -1.166e+14
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -5.536e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -4.334e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -3.426e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -3.706e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -8.697e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -7.444e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -2.086e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    3.679e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -1.573e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.657e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.456e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.856e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.743e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -6.637e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -6.532e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.783e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       4.686e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -4.114e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.708e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.631e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.044e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.034e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -9.327e+13
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.727e+13
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -1.722e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       7.336e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -1.212e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -5.449e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.565e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.068e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.399e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -7.498e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -5.842e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.679e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.297e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                 NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.270e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.576e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        6.324e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        6.324e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.061e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        8.650e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -2.082e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        7.162e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -2.225e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.157e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.949e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               3.945e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               3.945e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               3.673e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               4.242e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               4.912e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               6.178e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -4.431e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        8.793e+14
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.008e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.299e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.299e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -5.337e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -4.657e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        4.048e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        6.639e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -2.402e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.208e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.403e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 9.851e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 9.851e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -2.831e+13
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 9.440e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -1.868e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 7.009e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -2.463e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       5.686e+14
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.591e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -3.338e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -3.338e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -2.286e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.492e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -1.267e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       5.971e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -3.108e+15
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     2.450e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -2.619e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     9.543e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     4.240e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.993e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.939e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     5.510e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -1.086e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.074e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    3.856e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -8.263e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.344e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.344e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.124e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.055e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -4.539e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.587e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    4.780e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -1.740e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -5.597e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         6.091e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.843e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.208e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.138e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -7.531e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -1.275e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.240e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       5.884e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -4.244e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -4.575e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       4.037e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.539e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.476e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.027e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -3.380e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.394e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -2.570e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -9.111e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   2.405e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -7.380e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   7.909e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   7.212e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -7.271e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.802e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   3.200e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  9.631e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  3.794e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  3.270e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  3.416e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  2.294e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  2.186e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  5.604e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.258e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  4.918e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -3.214e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.852e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.046e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.666e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.607e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      7.662e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.433e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.726e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             4.157e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -9.116e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             8.433e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.732e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.861e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.132e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -3.683e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -1.111e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             6.727e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               7.590e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               2.521e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               7.116e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               8.208e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               2.126e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.667e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.496e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -7.395e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               4.292e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  7.734e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.666e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  5.012e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  4.717e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.482e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.410e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  6.465e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -9.198e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.963e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -6.725e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -9.520e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  2.079e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  2.082e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.079e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  8.790e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  4.988e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -1.304e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  2.875e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.238e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.175e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.296e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     3.894e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     2.239e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     6.870e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     3.126e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.097e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -2.754e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -8.571e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   8.137e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   8.137e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.094e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.552e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.319e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.619e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.492e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -4.322e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -8.320e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -6.577e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -6.577e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -5.896e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -9.611e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -2.253e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.533e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          9.258e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -2.625e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -7.759e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.136e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.136e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   8.178e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   2.358e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -1.165e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -1.521e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   6.964e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -3.277e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -8.248e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -2.488e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -2.488e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            7.393e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -3.794e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            4.956e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.586e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            6.745e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -3.683e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -8.737e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  3.475e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  3.475e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  5.228e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -1.061e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.502e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -1.423e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.096e+13
##                                                                      Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                           8.174e+05
## time                                                                  2.783e+04
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                  9.521e+05
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                  9.474e+05
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                  8.174e+05
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                  8.174e+05
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                  9.362e+05
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                  9.832e+05
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                  1.077e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                  1.178e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                  1.489e+06
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                               1.830e+06
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                              1.763e+06
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                   2.038e+06
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                 5.834e+06
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                             1.276e+06
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                            1.813e+07
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                                2.447e+07
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                       1.062e+06
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                         1.002e+06
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                            3.783e+06
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                            1.683e+07
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                               1.418e+08
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                             1.641e+06
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                    1.535e+06
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                             1.390e+06
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                      1.576e+06
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                            1.253e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                             3.235e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                             3.253e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                             2.783e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                             2.783e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                             3.008e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                             3.073e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                             3.773e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                             4.256e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                             5.738e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                          5.984e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                         5.917e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                              6.659e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                            2.046e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                        4.295e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                       6.262e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                           7.635e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                  3.605e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                    3.415e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                       1.345e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                       5.430e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                          1.268e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                        5.441e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                               5.209e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                        4.675e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                 5.173e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                       4.308e+04
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          1.894e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          1.892e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.036e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.020e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.071e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.142e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.285e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.420e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.947e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.035e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.016e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.763e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.763e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.821e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.846e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.464e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.585e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         3.241e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.314e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.304e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.250e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.238e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.088e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.110e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.511e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.654e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              3.081e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.856e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.598e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.296e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.581e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.497e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.577e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.057e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.705e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.014e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.487e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.478e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.398e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.277e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.355e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.388e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.706e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.843e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.347e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.902e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.911e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.899e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.880e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.869e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.905e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.291e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.463e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       6.233e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.589e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.643e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.730e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.573e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.667e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.055e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           9.918e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.812e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                  NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.169e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.165e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.136e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.133e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.230e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.195e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.421e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.564e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  2.040e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.115e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.111e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.047e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.049e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.152e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.210e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.351e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.490e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.935e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       3.814e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       3.813e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       4.360e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       4.392e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       4.441e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       4.983e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.969e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       8.827e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       3.242e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.874e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.768e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.683e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.683e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.756e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.815e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.940e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.930e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.264e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.425e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.418e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.429e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.487e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                 NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.890e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.904e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.641e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.641e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.855e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.919e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.114e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.303e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.917e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.772e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.763e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.535e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.535e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.755e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.823e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.021e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.178e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.626e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.596e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.582e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.390e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.390e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.580e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.607e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.782e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.886e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.222e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.801e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.799e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.576e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.576e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.815e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.882e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.066e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.213e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.657e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.439e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.425e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.253e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.253e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.364e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.457e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.579e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.706e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       2.063e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.207e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.217e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.738e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.664e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.803e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     7.011e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     7.752e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     8.505e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.090e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    6.899e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    6.912e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    5.917e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    5.917e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    6.026e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    6.058e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    8.648e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    9.454e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.328e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         7.628e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         7.641e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         7.424e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         7.396e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         6.757e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         6.786e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         8.489e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         9.317e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.150e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.417e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.340e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.126e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.323e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.307e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.332e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.503e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.852e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.745e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   5.025e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   5.053e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   4.749e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   4.435e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   4.444e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   4.488e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   5.917e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   6.588e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   8.766e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  6.790e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  6.651e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  6.603e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  6.531e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  6.475e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  6.602e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  7.736e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  8.251e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.832e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      8.296e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      8.306e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      8.464e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      8.058e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      8.288e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      9.222e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.625e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      1.203e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.964e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.979e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.887e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.882e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             4.080e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.952e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             5.023e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             5.691e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.825e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               3.792e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               3.808e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               3.589e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               3.593e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               3.808e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               3.941e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               4.782e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               5.434e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               7.406e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.355e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.355e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.567e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.586e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.598e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.775e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.152e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  3.167e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.017e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  5.937e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  5.697e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  5.430e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  5.430e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  5.642e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  5.782e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  6.113e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  6.355e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  8.365e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.275e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.269e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.269e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.269e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.269e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.268e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.277e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.279e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   6.308e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   6.412e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.441e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.441e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.841e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.950e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   7.300e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   8.092e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.058e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          6.000e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          6.022e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          5.209e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          5.209e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          5.625e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          5.727e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          7.081e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          7.904e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          9.915e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.375e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.369e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   4.675e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   4.675e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.246e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.064e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   6.148e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   6.661e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   8.347e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            5.959e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            6.003e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            5.173e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            5.173e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            5.972e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            5.742e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            7.090e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            7.868e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.004e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.960e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.951e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.308e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.308e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.514e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.664e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  5.619e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  6.253e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.114e+04
##                                                                         z value
## (Intercept)                                                           1.034e+09
## time                                                                  2.134e+09
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                  1.899e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                  6.399e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                 -1.034e+09
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                 -1.034e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                  3.326e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                  3.073e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                  8.886e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                 -4.666e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                  1.737e+08
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                               6.483e+08
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                              2.213e+08
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                  -5.232e+07
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                 3.452e+08
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                            -1.882e+09
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                            9.717e+07
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                               -1.924e+08
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                       1.492e+09
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                         2.876e+09
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                            9.985e+05
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                           -6.140e+06
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                              -7.787e+06
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                            -3.854e+08
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                   -2.569e+08
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                            -9.347e+07
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                     -6.250e+08
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                            2.663e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                            -1.419e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                             1.469e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                            -2.134e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                            -2.134e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                            -5.265e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                            -4.928e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                            -5.327e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                             3.287e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                            -3.563e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                         -6.347e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                        -2.271e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                             -3.271e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                           -3.999e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                        4.632e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                      -1.407e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                           9.607e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                 -1.527e+09
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                   -2.617e+09
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                      -6.754e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                      -3.834e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                         -3.071e+06
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                       -1.495e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                               1.263e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                       -2.431e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                 4.809e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                      -8.067e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -2.027e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.395e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -2.050e+09
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.146e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -4.011e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -3.891e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -7.773e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          1.767e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -3.475e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         6.924e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         9.128e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -2.213e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -2.213e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -2.388e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -2.307e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         4.315e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.515e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -5.529e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              3.522e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              7.280e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -9.903e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -3.417e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.845e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.783e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.800e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.340e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.170e+09
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -2.193e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.305e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            5.112e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            3.005e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -3.319e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -2.991e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -3.622e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            3.702e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.558e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.216e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.266e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -4.252e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.091e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.149e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.056e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.584e+09
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        4.460e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -6.338e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -6.761e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.615e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.562e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.656e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -1.797e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -1.771e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -2.144e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.804e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.628e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -1.108e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           9.281e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           1.220e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           1.908e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -1.860e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -1.481e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           4.530e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           1.273e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                  NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -3.626e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -2.606e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -3.003e+09
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -1.681e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -6.060e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -4.508e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -1.950e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  3.269e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -5.714e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -4.966e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -3.902e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -3.272e+09
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -3.534e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -7.550e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -6.152e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -1.545e+09
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    2.469e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -8.131e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -6.966e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -3.817e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -6.550e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -6.245e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.494e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.311e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.986e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.309e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.269e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.445e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.053e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       6.204e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       6.140e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -5.311e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.054e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -8.875e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.801e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -5.351e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.823e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.216e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -2.161e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -2.394e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -5.281e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.119e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -2.574e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          8.717e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                 NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        6.719e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.353e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.854e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.854e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        5.717e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        4.508e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -9.852e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.110e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -7.628e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               6.528e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.106e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.569e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.569e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.093e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.327e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.430e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.836e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -1.687e+09
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        5.508e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.269e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        9.347e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        9.347e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -3.378e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -2.898e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.272e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        3.520e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -1.081e+09
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 6.708e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.335e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 6.250e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 6.250e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -1.560e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 5.016e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -9.042e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 3.167e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -9.270e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       3.951e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.116e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -2.663e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -2.663e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -1.675e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.024e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -8.023e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       3.500e+09
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -1.506e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     3.947e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -4.212e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.416e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     6.362e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     2.930e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     2.766e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     7.108e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -1.277e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     5.574e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    5.589e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.195e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    2.271e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    2.271e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.866e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.741e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -5.249e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.678e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    3.598e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -2.281e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -7.325e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         8.204e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         2.492e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.787e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.677e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -8.871e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -1.369e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.078e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.435e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.814e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -2.152e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.738e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       6.671e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       6.332e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       4.101e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.185e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.722e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -5.116e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.803e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   5.064e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.664e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.780e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.607e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.229e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -2.735e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   3.650e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.418e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  5.704e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  4.952e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  5.230e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  3.543e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  3.312e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  7.244e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.525e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  2.684e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -3.875e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.230e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.235e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.068e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.939e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      8.308e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -9.268e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.267e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.049e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -2.291e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             2.169e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             9.615e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             4.561e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             2.864e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -7.331e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -1.952e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             8.597e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               2.001e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.621e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.983e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               2.284e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               5.582e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               4.230e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.358e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -1.361e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               5.795e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  5.708e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.967e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  3.198e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.973e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  9.272e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  7.946e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  3.004e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -2.904e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.931e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -1.133e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -1.671e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  3.829e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  3.834e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.913e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.520e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  8.159e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -2.052e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  3.437e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     9.712e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     9.262e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.022e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     3.068e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.764e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     5.417e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     2.448e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -8.571e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -4.367e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.337e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.495e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.495e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.874e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   2.608e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   7.286e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -2.001e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.191e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -7.203e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.382e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.263e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.263e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.048e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.678e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -3.182e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.940e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          9.338e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -4.885e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -1.445e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   2.431e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   2.431e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.559e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   4.657e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -1.895e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -2.284e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   8.343e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -5.500e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.374e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -4.809e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -4.809e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.238e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -6.608e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            6.990e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -2.016e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            6.718e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -7.426e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -1.765e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.067e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.067e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  1.158e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -2.276e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.013e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -2.275e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  9.977e+08
##                                                                      Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                                                            <2e-16
## time                                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                                <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                               <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                    <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                  <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                              <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                             <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                                 <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                        <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                          <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                             <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                             <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                                <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                              <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                     <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                              <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                       <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                           <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                          <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                               <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                             <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                         <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                        <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                            <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                   <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                     <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                        <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                        <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                           <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                         <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                         <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                  <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                               NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
##                                                                         
## (Intercept)                                                          ***
## time                                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                              ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                             ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                  ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                            ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                           ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                               ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                      ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                        ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                           ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                           ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                              ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                            ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                   ***
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                            ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                     ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                            ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                         ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                        ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                             ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                           ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                       ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                      ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                          ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                   ***
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                      ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                      ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                         ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                       ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                              ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                       ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                        
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                       
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance:    493646  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 170456905  on 7513  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 170499019
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 25
# Without interaction
mdl1 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time*factor(reg_name) + factor(ageClass), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(reg_name) + factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -9.8325  -0.9407   0.0000   1.0774   6.0441  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                   Estimate Std. Error  z value
## (Intercept)                                     -4.079e-01  6.993e-03  -58.326
## time                                             5.220e-02  2.238e-04  233.176
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -5.215e-01  1.183e-02  -44.078
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         6.565e-01  1.286e-02   51.037
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              1.480e-01  1.242e-02   11.919
## factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.031e+00  3.809e-02   27.080
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -3.814e-01  8.962e-03  -42.561
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.673e+00  9.251e-02   18.086
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -6.998e-01  1.395e-01   -5.017
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  6.126e-01  7.592e-03   80.702
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    7.170e-01  6.959e-03  103.038
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.362e+00  5.111e-02  -46.211
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.757e-01  7.853e-02    3.511
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.962e+00  2.504e-01  -19.819
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.788e-01  1.101e-02   25.325
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.572e-02  1.050e-02    1.497
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        3.534e-01  9.060e-03   39.005
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.356e-02  1.049e-02    1.293
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       4.408e-01  8.051e-03   54.755
## factor(ageClass)14.5                             1.092e-01  4.831e-03   22.604
## factor(ageClass)24.5                             6.150e-02  4.796e-03   12.824
## factor(ageClass)34.5                             9.044e-02  4.800e-03   18.841
## factor(ageClass)44.5                             1.193e-01  4.803e-03   24.832
## factor(ageClass)54.5                             4.743e-02  4.862e-03    9.755
## factor(ageClass)64.5                            -2.691e-02  5.123e-03   -5.252
## factor(ageClass)74.5                            -1.823e-01  5.642e-03  -32.302
## factor(ageClass)84.5                            -4.153e-01  6.259e-03  -66.356
## factor(ageClass)94.5                            -5.860e-01  8.213e-03  -71.352
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.051e-02  4.550e-04   23.093
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.356e-02  5.168e-04  -26.231
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -8.868e-03  4.745e-04  -18.689
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.973e-02  1.553e-03  -12.711
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.016e-02  3.359e-04  -30.262
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.257e-02  4.007e-03   -3.136
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -6.223e-02  4.552e-03  -13.672
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -1.743e-02  2.985e-04  -58.397
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -2.725e-02  2.702e-04 -100.828
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -3.622e-02  1.788e-03  -20.249
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  2.987e-02  3.052e-03    9.787
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.132e-03  1.068e-02   -0.106
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.359e-02  4.214e-04  -32.242
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -7.121e-05  4.110e-04   -0.173
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -9.366e-03  3.519e-04  -26.615
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -7.925e-03  4.008e-04  -19.771
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -5.925e-03  3.296e-04  -17.976
##                                                 Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                      < 2e-16 ***
## time                                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                            < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                          5.24e-07 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                      0.000447 ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              0.134269    
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                0.195988    
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                            1.50e-07 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                       < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 0.001710 ** 
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    0.915579    
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         0.862454    
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 493646  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  27468  on 7824  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 68960
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5
# Without interaction
mdl1bis <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time*factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1bis)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -16.229   -1.051    0.000    1.296    8.444  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                              Estimate Std. Error  z value
## (Intercept)                                 0.1801623  0.0093435   19.282
## time                                        0.0271462  0.0003168   85.682
## factor(ageClass)14.5                       -0.1595459  0.0103735  -15.380
## factor(ageClass)24.5                       -0.2066768  0.0102353  -20.193
## factor(ageClass)34.5                       -0.1788515  0.0102316  -17.480
## factor(ageClass)44.5                       -0.1935203  0.0102198  -18.936
## factor(ageClass)54.5                       -0.2984779  0.0103136  -28.940
## factor(ageClass)64.5                       -0.3943303  0.0108248  -36.429
## factor(ageClass)74.5                       -0.6226341  0.0117457  -53.009
## factor(ageClass)84.5                       -0.9541698  0.0127690  -74.725
## factor(ageClass)94.5                       -1.1258602  0.0159675  -70.509
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -0.2671087  0.0056575  -47.213
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    0.3562504  0.0066870   53.275
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -0.0455180  0.0060176   -7.564
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       0.6013311  0.0193395   31.093
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -0.6048541  0.0042801 -141.319
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.3871869  0.0477801   29.033
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.4720472  0.0625335  -39.532
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             0.2277821  0.0038360   59.380
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               0.1055952  0.0034510   30.598
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -3.2861382  0.0220425 -149.082
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.0277143  0.0364524   28.193
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -5.0158214  0.1345101  -37.290
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -0.0256991  0.0054077   -4.752
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.0156486  0.0052282    2.993
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   0.1447890  0.0046086   31.417
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -0.1589867  0.0052183  -30.467
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  0.2946971  0.0042313   69.646
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                   0.0107809  0.0003724   28.948
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                   0.0107435  0.0003710   28.955
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                   0.0107406  0.0003702   29.015
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                   0.0127260  0.0003703   34.367
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                   0.0141942  0.0003754   37.813
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                   0.0151869  0.0003971   38.247
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                   0.0186556  0.0004389   42.507
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                   0.0233903  0.0004878   47.948
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                   0.0235193  0.0006314   37.250
##                                            Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                 < 2e-16 ***
## time                                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        3.90e-14 ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                      < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                  2.01e-06 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.00276 ** 
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                   < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 493646  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  43616  on 7832  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 85092
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5
# Without interaction at all
mdl2 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -17.2131   -1.0066    0.0195    1.4043    9.4513  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                              Estimate Std. Error  z value
## (Intercept)                                -1.335e-01  5.238e-03  -25.487
## time                                        3.976e-02  7.453e-05  533.481
## factor(ageClass)14.5                        1.117e-01  4.824e-03   23.144
## factor(ageClass)24.5                        6.581e-02  4.790e-03   13.737
## factor(ageClass)34.5                        9.333e-02  4.795e-03   19.464
## factor(ageClass)44.5                        1.229e-01  4.798e-03   25.621
## factor(ageClass)54.5                        5.009e-02  4.855e-03   10.317
## factor(ageClass)64.5                       -2.379e-02  5.116e-03   -4.651
## factor(ageClass)74.5                       -1.780e-01  5.628e-03  -31.626
## factor(ageClass)84.5                       -4.137e-01  6.241e-03  -66.297
## factor(ageClass)94.5                       -5.897e-01  8.180e-03  -72.086
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -2.678e-01  5.653e-03  -47.382
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    3.557e-01  6.683e-03   53.216
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -4.649e-02  6.011e-03   -7.733
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       6.019e-01  1.931e-02   31.162
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -6.031e-01  4.279e-03 -140.955
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.393e+00  4.776e-02   29.173
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -2.470e+00  6.255e-02  -39.485
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             2.274e-01  3.834e-03   59.313
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.055e-01  3.450e-03   30.569
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -3.288e+00  2.205e-02 -149.114
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.029e+00  3.641e-02   28.267
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -5.025e+00  1.345e-01  -37.368
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -2.481e-02  5.404e-03   -4.592
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.509e-02  5.225e-03    2.889
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.446e-01  4.604e-03   31.407
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.598e-01  5.216e-03  -30.644
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  2.923e-01  4.226e-03   69.170
##                                            Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                 < 2e-16 ***
## time                                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                       3.30e-06 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        1.05e-14 ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                      < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                  4.39e-06 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.00387 ** 
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 493646  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  47313  on 7841  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 88771
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5
## Likelihood ratio tests
anova(mdl1, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(reg_name) + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      7824      27468                        
## 2      7513  170456905 311 -170429437
anova(mdl1bis, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      7832      43616                        
## 2      7513  170456905 319 -170413289
anova(mdl2, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      7841      47313                        
## 2      7513  170456905 328 -170409592
  1. Age as quantitative
mdl3 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass * factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl3)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass * factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -11.1324   -1.3027   -0.0515    0.9351    7.6122  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                            Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                               5.097e-02  1.218e-02
## time                                                      4.502e-02  4.738e-04
## ageClass                                                 -1.051e-02  2.547e-04
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                  -6.166e-01  2.536e-02
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                  4.464e-01  2.665e-02
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                       2.466e-01  2.693e-02
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                     6.009e-01  8.795e-02
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                -6.148e-01  1.884e-02
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                1.533e+00  2.434e-01
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                   -2.115e+00  3.398e-01
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                           4.895e-01  1.618e-02
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                             6.291e-01  1.499e-02
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                               -2.608e+00  1.114e-01
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                6.464e-01  1.954e-01
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                  -7.269e+00  1.534e+00
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                 2.080e-01  2.367e-02
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                        2.038e-01  2.242e-02
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                 3.018e-01  1.941e-02
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                         -1.688e-01  2.194e-02
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                4.487e-01  1.760e-02
## time:ageClass                                             1.721e-04  1.009e-05
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté              1.455e-02  9.682e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                            -8.746e-03  1.062e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                 -1.897e-02  1.007e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                               -1.389e-02  3.514e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                           -5.088e-03  7.021e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                           7.319e-03  1.119e-02
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                              -3.164e-02  1.140e-02
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                     -1.865e-02  6.270e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                       -2.918e-02  5.755e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                          -4.355e-02  3.923e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                           2.391e-02  7.798e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                              1.239e-01  4.709e-02
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                           -1.248e-02  8.911e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                  -3.372e-03  8.685e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                           -1.182e-02  7.457e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                    -6.662e-03  8.276e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur          -8.982e-03  7.115e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.394e-03  5.169e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         4.815e-03  5.672e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -2.128e-03  5.406e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                            9.834e-03  1.747e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        5.535e-03  3.980e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       3.589e-03  5.055e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.912e-02  8.050e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  2.877e-03  3.398e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    2.143e-03  3.174e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       6.533e-03  2.618e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -7.305e-03  3.772e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          4.359e-02  2.484e-02
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.870e-03  4.857e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -4.389e-03  4.674e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.273e-03  3.954e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 4.147e-03  4.596e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.949e-04  3.580e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -1.027e-04  2.000e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.083e-04  2.316e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         2.367e-04  2.100e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.433e-04  7.071e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.212e-04  1.500e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -4.047e-04  2.141e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -8.452e-04  2.606e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             3.662e-05  1.350e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               5.864e-05  1.244e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.904e-04  8.985e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.238e-04  1.530e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.376e-03  8.148e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -3.493e-05  1.862e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          7.235e-05  1.845e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.492e-05  1.556e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -2.224e-05  1.780e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  6.313e-05  1.486e-05
##                                                          z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                                4.186 2.84e-05 ***
## time                                                      95.026  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass                                                 -41.285  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                  -24.315  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                  16.753  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                        9.157  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                      6.832 8.36e-12 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                -32.641  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                 6.298 3.02e-10 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                    -6.225 4.81e-10 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                           30.249  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                             41.981  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                               -23.413  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                 3.309 0.000937 ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                   -4.738 2.16e-06 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                  8.786  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                         9.090  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                 15.547  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                          -7.695 1.42e-14 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                25.490  < 2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass                                             17.051  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté              15.026  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                             -8.235  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                 -18.833  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                -3.952 7.76e-05 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                            -7.247 4.25e-13 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                            0.654 0.513050    
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                               -2.775 0.005527 ** 
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                     -29.739  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                       -50.699  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                          -11.100  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                            3.065 0.002173 ** 
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                               2.632 0.008489 ** 
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                           -14.006  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                   -3.883 0.000103 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                           -15.847  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                     -8.050 8.27e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur          -12.624  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           4.631 3.64e-06 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          8.489  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              -3.935 8.30e-05 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                             5.630 1.80e-08 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        13.907  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        0.710 0.477663    
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            4.859 1.18e-06 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   8.466  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     6.753 1.45e-11 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        2.496 0.012576 *  
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       -1.936 0.052811 .  
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           1.755 0.079264 .  
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         3.850 0.000118 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               -9.390  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         3.220 0.001281 ** 
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  9.025  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        0.544 0.586133    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     -5.135 2.82e-07 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    -4.675 2.93e-06 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         11.273  < 2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                       -2.026 0.042787 *  
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   -8.080 6.50e-16 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  -1.890 0.058724 .  
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      -3.243 0.001183 ** 
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              2.713 0.006668 ** 
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                4.714 2.43e-06 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   2.119 0.034113 *  
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   0.809 0.418532    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     -2.916 0.003540 ** 
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   -1.877 0.060586 .  
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           3.922 8.77e-05 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    3.529 0.000417 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            -1.249 0.211621    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   4.248 2.16e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 493646  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  33531  on 7797  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 75077
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl3, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass * factor(reg_name)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      7797      33531                        
## 2      7513  170456905 284 -170423374
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ date2 * as.factor(ageClass) + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ date2 * as.factor(ageClass) + 
##     reg_name.fac, family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -16.229   -1.051    0.000    1.296    8.444  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                            -5.068e+02  5.925e+00  -85.536  < 2e-16
## date2                                   2.715e-02  3.168e-04   85.682  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)14.5                -2.015e+02  6.964e+00  -28.933  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)24.5                -2.009e+02  6.939e+00  -28.947  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)34.5                -2.008e+02  6.922e+00  -29.003  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)44.5                -2.379e+02  6.925e+00  -34.350  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)54.5                -2.654e+02  7.020e+00  -37.806  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)64.5                -2.840e+02  7.425e+00  -38.251  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)74.5                -3.490e+02  8.207e+00  -42.530  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)84.5                -4.378e+02  9.122e+00  -47.995  < 2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)94.5                -4.404e+02  1.181e+01  -37.303  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    -2.671e-01  5.658e-03  -47.213  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    3.563e-01  6.687e-03   53.275  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        -4.552e-02  6.018e-03   -7.564 3.90e-14
## reg_name.facCorse                       6.013e-01  1.934e-02   31.093  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  -6.049e-01  4.280e-03 -141.319  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                  1.387e+00  4.778e-02   29.033  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuyane                     -2.472e+00  6.253e-02  -39.532  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France             2.278e-01  3.836e-03   59.380  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               1.056e-01  3.451e-03   30.598  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 -3.286e+00  2.204e-02 -149.082  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                  1.028e+00  3.645e-02   28.193  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMayotte                    -5.016e+00  1.345e-01  -37.290  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                  -2.570e-02  5.408e-03   -4.752 2.01e-06
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine          1.565e-02  5.228e-03    2.993  0.00276
## reg_name.facOccitanie                   1.448e-01  4.609e-03   31.417  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           -1.590e-01  5.218e-03  -30.467  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  2.947e-01  4.231e-03   69.646  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)14.5           1.078e-02  3.724e-04   28.948  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)24.5           1.074e-02  3.710e-04   28.955  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)34.5           1.074e-02  3.702e-04   29.015  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)44.5           1.273e-02  3.703e-04   34.367  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)54.5           1.419e-02  3.754e-04   37.813  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)64.5           1.519e-02  3.971e-04   38.247  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)74.5           1.866e-02  4.389e-04   42.507  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)84.5           2.339e-02  4.878e-04   47.948  < 2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)94.5           2.352e-02  6.314e-04   37.250  < 2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## as.factor(ageClass)14.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)24.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)34.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)44.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)54.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)64.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)74.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)84.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)94.5                ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ** 
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)14.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)24.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)34.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)44.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)54.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)64.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)74.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)84.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)94.5          ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 493646  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  43616  on 7832  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 85092
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5
# Ignoring IND
mdl.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ date2 + cl_age90 + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ date2 + cl_age90 + reg_name.fac, 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -14.294   -1.194    0.000    1.167    8.761  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                            -9.742e+02  1.633e+00 -596.537   <2e-16
## date2                                   5.217e-02  8.734e-05  597.351   <2e-16
## cl_age90                               -6.095e-03  5.110e-05 -119.292   <2e-16
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    -4.042e-01  6.147e-03  -65.755   <2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    3.943e-01  7.568e-03   52.097   <2e-16
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire         1.105e-01  7.027e-03   15.718   <2e-16
## reg_name.facCorse                       1.333e+00  2.902e-02   45.945   <2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  -7.079e-01  4.714e-03 -150.164   <2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                  1.636e+00  5.872e-02   27.856   <2e-16
## reg_name.facGuyane                     -2.673e+00  6.477e-02  -41.264   <2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France             3.648e-01  4.388e-03   83.136   <2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               3.942e-01  3.991e-03   98.771   <2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 -3.369e+00  2.266e-02 -148.708   <2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                  8.999e-01  3.987e-02   22.572   <2e-16
## reg_name.facMayotte                    -4.986e+00  1.349e-01  -36.948   <2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                   1.130e-01  6.256e-03   18.062   <2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         -5.119e-02  5.782e-03   -8.852   <2e-16
## reg_name.facOccitanie                   1.897e-01  5.220e-03   36.331   <2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           -2.645e-01  5.722e-03  -46.227   <2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.248e-01  4.839e-03   87.778   <2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## cl_age90                               ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 595908  on 7832  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  39471  on 7813  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 78644
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

V2

par(mfrow = c(4, 3))
for(region in tmp){
  subdat <- dat.regions[dat.regions$reg == region, ]
  plot(subdat$date2, subdat$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3, ylim = c(0, 100), main = regs[as.character(region)], col = colsAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V2/V3"
       )
}

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V2/3 result
dat.regions.ages$V23 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V1)
dat.regions.ages$notV23 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.regions.ages$notV23.narm <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V23
mdl <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.6945  -1.0998  -0.2392   0.6784   6.9944  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                             8.448e+01  2.943e+00  28.705  < 2e-16
## date2                                  -4.698e-03  1.574e-04 -29.854  < 2e-16
## ageClass                               -3.062e-04  9.408e-05  -3.255  0.00113
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté     4.473e-01  1.256e-02  35.621  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    1.397e-01  1.501e-02   9.309  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        -7.030e-01  1.995e-02 -35.232  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCorse                      -8.668e-01  6.448e-02 -13.443  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                   1.759e+00  8.244e-03 213.419  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 -1.769e+00  1.897e-01  -9.326  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuyane                      3.097e+00  5.119e-02  60.507  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            -5.256e-01  1.062e-02 -49.474  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               3.759e-01  8.176e-03  45.980  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                  3.189e+00  1.434e-02 222.426  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                 -1.652e+00  1.435e-01 -11.513  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMayotte                     3.224e+00  2.839e-02 113.571  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                  -2.396e-01  1.476e-02 -16.238  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         -3.820e-02  1.319e-02  -2.897  0.00377
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  -6.024e-01  1.368e-02 -44.037  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire            7.471e-01  1.071e-02  69.786  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -1.062e-01  1.058e-02 -10.036  < 2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## ageClass                               ** 
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ** 
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 200045  on 7868  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  20377  on 7849  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 49910
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
# Ignoring IND
mdl.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -6.0844  -1.1198  -0.2167   0.7118   6.8613  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                             8.351e+01  2.961e+00  28.199  < 2e-16
## date2                                  -4.642e-03  1.584e-04 -29.315  < 2e-16
## ageClass                               -3.158e-04  9.522e-05  -3.317 0.000912
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté     4.284e-01  1.257e-02  34.065  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    1.290e-01  1.502e-02   8.587  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        -6.633e-01  1.997e-02 -33.208  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCorse                      -8.032e-01  6.455e-02 -12.443  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                   1.785e+00  8.270e-03 215.899  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 -1.808e+00  1.897e-01  -9.532  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuyane                      3.270e+00  5.413e-02  60.408  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            -5.114e-01  1.064e-02 -48.083  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               4.284e-01  8.190e-03  52.309  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                  3.605e+00  1.582e-02 227.838  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                 -1.709e+00  1.435e-01 -11.909  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMayotte                     3.475e+00  3.074e-02 113.037  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                  -2.066e-01  1.478e-02 -13.977  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         -5.121e-02  1.320e-02  -3.880 0.000105
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  -5.992e-01  1.369e-02 -43.764  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire            7.346e-01  1.072e-02  68.494  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -9.383e-02  1.059e-02  -8.858  < 2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## ageClass                               ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 206889  on 7832  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  20461  on 7813  degrees of freedom
##   (1380 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 49743
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6

All

par(mfrow = c(4, 3))
tmp <- unique(dat.regions$reg) # Region codes
tmp <- tmp[tmp>10 & tmp <= 93] # Choose only metropolitan regions
for(region in tmp){
  subdat <- dat.regions[dat.regions$reg == region, ]

  cc <- getVec(subdat[subdat$cl_age90 == 0, ], prop = FALSE)
  plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)
  title(main = regs[as.character(region)])
}

Départements

URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/16f4fd03-797f-4616-bca9-78ff212d06e8"
dataFile <- paste0("data/Dep_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.deps <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Format date
dat.deps$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.deps$semaine, 1, 10))
dat.deps$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.deps$semaine, 12, 21))

# Rewrite time as days since beginning of the data
dat.deps$time <- dat.deps$date2 - min(dat.deps$date2)

# Compute data on total tests
dat.deps$Nb_tests_POS <- dat.deps$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible / (dat.deps$Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible / 100)
# Add name
deps <- read.csv("data/departement2020.csv", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
# Turn into dictionnary
dps <- deps$libelle
names(dps) <- as.character(deps$dep)
dat.deps$departement <- dps[as.character(dat.deps$dep)]

Effort

par(las = 1)
par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(dat.deps$dep))){
  tmp <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  
  with(tmp[tmp$cl_age90 == "0",], {
  plot(date2, Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible, ylim = c(0, 100), type = "l", xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion tests criblés", 
       main = unique(tmp$departement))})
}

V1

par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(dat.deps$dep))){
  tmp <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  plot(tmp$date2, tmp$Prc_susp_501Y_V1, ylim = c(0, 100), col = colsAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V1", 
       main = unique(tmp$departement))
  
#  legend(x = min(dat.deps$date2), y = 100, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)
}

V2/V3

par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(dat.deps$dep))){
  tmp <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  plot(tmp$date2, tmp$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3, ylim = c(0, 100), col = colsAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V2V3", 
       main = unique(tmp$departement))
  
#  legend(x = min(dat.deps$date2), y = 100, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)
}

All

par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(deps$dep))){
  subdat <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  if(any(!is.na(subdat$Nb_tests_POS))){
    cc <- getVec(subdat[subdat$cl_age90 == 0, ], prop = FALSE)
    plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)
    title(main = unique(subdat$departement))
  }
  
  
#  legend(x = min(dat.deps$date2), y = 100, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)
}